The record, most recent first

Anthropic researchers claim AI could cause human extinction by 2030, while a paper on AI governance mechanisms highlights their limitations. These developments contribute to concerns about the potential risks of AI, although some proposals, such as regulations on AI chatbots and increased user control over online algorithms, may help mitigate these risks. However, the effectiveness of these measures is uncertain, and the disagreement between the severity of predicted risks and the feasibility of governance mechanisms remains unresolved.

Source: BBC Radio 4, Today programme (guest editor interview), 27 December 2024  ·  verification: reported

Widely reported as a revision upward from the 10 percent figure he had used previously.

Source: Abundance Summit, Great AI Debate, March 2024  ·  verification: reported

Stated alongside the claim that the most likely outcome is nonetheless positive.

Source: Public interviews and written testimony, 2023 to 2025  ·  verification: reported

Bengio has described his own estimate as around 20 percent while stressing the wide uncertainty and arguing the number matters less than the fact that it is not negligible.

Source: Repeated public statements on social media and in interviews, 2023 to 2025  ·  verification: unverified

LeCun has not given a formal number. He has repeatedly described the risk as negligible and the framing as unscientific. The value here is a placeholder for 'asserted negligible' and is flagged accordingly rather than presented as his figure.

Source: Dwarkesh Podcast interview, August 2023  ·  verification: reported

Stated as a range rather than a point estimate, and about civilisational-scale bad outcomes rather than extinction specifically.

Source: Interviews given around his departure from Google, May 2023  ·  verification: reported

The earlier figure against which the 2024 statement was reported as a change.

Source: TIME magazine guest essay, 29 March 2023, and repeated public statements  ·  verification: reported

He has generally declined to give a precise number, describing the outcome as near-certain absent a halt. The figure here is an interval reconstructed from his own phrasing and should be read as such.

Source: The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Bloomsbury, 2020  ·  verification: reported

Given as roughly 1 in 10 for AI specifically, within a total existential risk estimate of about 1 in 6 for the century.