Geoffrey Hinton

Researcher; Turing Award laureate · University of Toronto (formerly Google)

Shared the 2018 Turing Award for deep learning and the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics. Left Google in 2023 saying he wanted to speak freely about risk. One of the most-cited voices arguing that loss of control is a live possibility rather than a distant one.

Stated numbers

Each point is a number this person gave, on the date they gave it. Nothing on this chart is machine-generated. A hollow point means the entry is flagged unverified: it is a placeholder standing in for a position stated in words rather than a figure the person actually put a number on.

Date	Probability	Question asked	Source	Verification
2024-12-27	15% (10–20)	Probability that AI causes human extinction within the next 30 years	BBC Radio 4, Today programme (guest editor interview), 27 December 2024	reported
	Widely reported as a revision upward from the 10 percent figure he had used previously.
2023-05-01	10%	Probability that AI wipes out humanity in the next 30 years	Interviews given around his departure from Google, May 2023	reported
	The earlier figure against which the 2024 statement was reported as a change.

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