{
  "note": "Explicit estimates only. Machine-inferred positions are never included here.",
  "estimates": [
    {
      "id": "28c49791-2bca-4753-99d6-7f951fe931ea",
      "person_id": "person-geoffrey-hinton",
      "probability": 0.15,
      "prob_low": 0.1,
      "prob_high": 0.2,
      "question": "Probability that AI causes human extinction within the next 30 years",
      "stated_on": "2024-12-27",
      "source_ref": "BBC Radio 4, Today programme (guest editor interview), 27 December 2024",
      "source_url": null,
      "document_id": null,
      "quote": null,
      "context": "Widely reported as a revision upward from the 10 percent figure he had used previously.",
      "verification": "reported",
      "entered_by": "seed",
      "created_at": "2026-09-10T08:55:09.802Z",
      "name": "Geoffrey Hinton",
      "slug": "geoffrey-hinton"
    },
    {
      "id": "9c137444-5e2f-47a3-b2d4-50a48d9f7496",
      "person_id": "person-elon-musk",
      "probability": 0.15,
      "prob_low": 0.1,
      "prob_high": 0.2,
      "question": "Probability that AI annihilates humanity",
      "stated_on": "2024-03-18",
      "source_ref": "Abundance Summit, Great AI Debate, March 2024",
      "source_url": null,
      "document_id": null,
      "quote": null,
      "context": "Stated alongside the claim that the most likely outcome is nonetheless positive.",
      "verification": "reported",
      "entered_by": "seed",
      "created_at": "2026-09-10T08:55:09.802Z",
      "name": "Elon Musk",
      "slug": "elon-musk"
    },
    {
      "id": "ac011b44-6f14-4bf4-9fb3-8aa983b17641",
      "person_id": "person-yoshua-bengio",
      "probability": 0.2,
      "prob_low": null,
      "prob_high": null,
      "question": "Probability of catastrophic outcomes from advanced AI",
      "stated_on": "2024-01-01",
      "source_ref": "Public interviews and written testimony, 2023 to 2025",
      "source_url": null,
      "document_id": null,
      "quote": null,
      "context": "Bengio has described his own estimate as around 20 percent while stressing the wide uncertainty and arguing the number matters less than the fact that it is not negligible.",
      "verification": "reported",
      "entered_by": "seed",
      "created_at": "2026-09-10T08:55:09.802Z",
      "name": "Yoshua Bengio",
      "slug": "yoshua-bengio"
    },
    {
      "id": "d5ad9932-7053-44f4-84b9-01bf5a7b946d",
      "person_id": "person-yann-lecun",
      "probability": 0.001,
      "prob_low": null,
      "prob_high": null,
      "question": "Probability that AI causes human extinction",
      "stated_on": "2023-10-01",
      "source_ref": "Repeated public statements on social media and in interviews, 2023 to 2025",
      "source_url": null,
      "document_id": null,
      "quote": null,
      "context": "LeCun has not given a formal number. He has repeatedly described the risk as negligible and the framing as unscientific. The value here is a placeholder for 'asserted negligible' and is flagged accordingly rather than presented as his figure.",
      "verification": "unverified",
      "entered_by": "seed",
      "created_at": "2026-09-10T08:55:09.802Z",
      "name": "Yann LeCun",
      "slug": "yann-lecun"
    },
    {
      "id": "79d49b1e-84e5-4fdb-8d76-95860f16e780",
      "person_id": "person-dario-amodei",
      "probability": 0.2,
      "prob_low": 0.1,
      "prob_high": 0.25,
      "question": "Probability that things go really badly with advanced AI",
      "stated_on": "2023-08-08",
      "source_ref": "Dwarkesh Podcast interview, August 2023",
      "source_url": null,
      "document_id": null,
      "quote": null,
      "context": "Stated as a range rather than a point estimate, and about civilisational-scale bad outcomes rather than extinction specifically.",
      "verification": "reported",
      "entered_by": "seed",
      "created_at": "2026-09-10T08:55:09.802Z",
      "name": "Dario Amodei",
      "slug": "dario-amodei"
    },
    {
      "id": "71c1c34e-3d8c-4980-ab67-5105caf872de",
      "person_id": "person-geoffrey-hinton",
      "probability": 0.1,
      "prob_low": null,
      "prob_high": null,
      "question": "Probability that AI wipes out humanity in the next 30 years",
      "stated_on": "2023-05-01",
      "source_ref": "Interviews given around his departure from Google, May 2023",
      "source_url": null,
      "document_id": null,
      "quote": null,
      "context": "The earlier figure against which the 2024 statement was reported as a change.",
      "verification": "reported",
      "entered_by": "seed",
      "created_at": "2026-09-10T08:55:09.802Z",
      "name": "Geoffrey Hinton",
      "slug": "geoffrey-hinton"
    },
    {
      "id": "f75a579e-349b-47aa-a60a-5f38d772d8fe",
      "person_id": "person-eliezer-yudkowsky",
      "probability": 0.95,
      "prob_low": 0.9,
      "prob_high": 0.99,
      "question": "Probability that the development of superintelligence under current conditions kills everyone",
      "stated_on": "2023-03-29",
      "source_ref": "TIME magazine guest essay, 29 March 2023, and repeated public statements",
      "source_url": null,
      "document_id": null,
      "quote": null,
      "context": "He has generally declined to give a precise number, describing the outcome as near-certain absent a halt. The figure here is an interval reconstructed from his own phrasing and should be read as such.",
      "verification": "reported",
      "entered_by": "seed",
      "created_at": "2026-09-10T08:55:09.802Z",
      "name": "Eliezer Yudkowsky",
      "slug": "eliezer-yudkowsky"
    },
    {
      "id": "eb19f373-7216-46c1-b011-6e243891c6e2",
      "person_id": "person-toby-ord",
      "probability": 0.1,
      "prob_low": null,
      "prob_high": null,
      "question": "Probability of an existential catastrophe from unaligned artificial intelligence this century",
      "stated_on": "2020-03-24",
      "source_ref": "The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Bloomsbury, 2020",
      "source_url": null,
      "document_id": null,
      "quote": null,
      "context": "Given as roughly 1 in 10 for AI specifically, within a total existential risk estimate of about 1 in 6 for the century.",
      "verification": "reported",
      "entered_by": "seed",
      "created_at": "2026-09-10T08:55:09.802Z",
      "name": "Toby Ord",
      "slug": "toby-ord"
    }
  ]
}