People observatory
Not what they believe. How it changed.
Individual pages for the people whose positions shape the argument. Where someone has given a number more than once, the card shows the move. Statements they actually made are kept separate from anything a model inferred, always, on every page.
The distinction that governs this section
Explicit estimate means the person gave a number. It is stored with the date, the venue and a verification flag. Inferred position means our pipeline read documents that mention them and estimated where they sit. An inferred number is never presented as theirs, and the two are never averaged together.
Geoffrey Hinton
Researcher; Turing Award laureate · University of Toronto (formerly Google)
10%
15%
2023 – 2024
Dario Amodei
Chief Executive · Anthropic
stated 20% · 2023
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Writer and researcher · Machine Intelligence Research Institute
stated 95% · 2023
Elon Musk
Chief Executive · Tesla, SpaceX, xAI
stated 15% · 2024
Toby Ord
Philosopher · University of Oxford
stated 10% · 2020
Yann LeCun
Chief AI Scientist; Turing Award laureate · Meta
position stated in words, not a figure
Yoshua Bengio
Researcher; Turing Award laureate · Mila, Université de Montréal
stated 20% · 2024
Arvind Narayanan
Professor of Computer Science · Princeton University
no stated number yet
Daron Acemoglu
Institute Professor of Economics; Nobel laureate · MIT
no stated number yet
Demis Hassabis
Chief Executive; Nobel laureate · Google DeepMind
no stated number yet
Emily M. Bender
Professor of Linguistics · University of Washington
no stated number yet
Erik Brynjolfsson
Professor and Director, Digital Economy Lab · Stanford University
no stated number yet
Gary Marcus
Cognitive scientist and author · Independent (Emeritus, NYU)
no stated number yet
Helen Toner
Executive Director · CSET, Georgetown University
no stated number yet
Ilya Sutskever
Co-founder · Safe Superintelligence Inc.
no stated number yet
Sam Altman
Chief Executive · OpenAI
no stated number yet
Stuart Russell
Professor of Computer Science · UC Berkeley
no stated number yet