Eliezer Yudkowsky

Writer and researcher · Machine Intelligence Research Institute

The longest-standing and most pessimistic voice in the debate. Argues that alignment is unsolved, that the default outcome of superintelligence is human extinction, and that development should be halted.

Stated numbers

Each point is a number this person gave, on the date they gave it. Nothing on this chart is machine-generated. A hollow point means the entry is flagged unverified: it is a placeholder standing in for a position stated in words rather than a figure the person actually put a number on.

Date	Probability	Question asked	Source	Verification
2023-03-29	95% (90–99)	Probability that the development of superintelligence under current conditions kills everyone	TIME magazine guest essay, 29 March 2023, and repeated public statements	reported
	He has generally declined to give a precise number, describing the outcome as near-certain absent a halt. The figure here is an interval reconstructed from his own phrasing and should be read as such.

Inferred position

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Recent documents mentioning Eliezer Yudkowsky

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