Toby Ord

Philosopher · University of Oxford

Author of The Precipice, which put explicit numbers on existential risks by source and made the practice of stating them normal.

Stated numbers

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Date	Probability	Question asked	Source	Verification
2020-03-24	10%	Probability of an existential catastrophe from unaligned artificial intelligence this century	The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, Bloomsbury, 2020	reported
	Given as roughly 1 in 10 for AI specifically, within a total existential risk estimate of about 1 in 6 for the century.

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