EvoBelief: Falsifiable World Models for Self-Improving LLM Agents

arXiv:2610.12789v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Self-evolving LLM agents typically improve how they act through accumulated experience, reflection, or skills. Yet even procedurally capable agents can fail when their beliefs about environment dynamics are incomplete, incorrect, or outdated. We study a complementary axis of self-evolution: evolving those beliefs during deployment. Such beliefs can support multiple tasks, but incorrect ones can also propagate across them. We introduce EvoBelief, a self-evolving world model that represents environment knowledge as falsifiable hypotheses. Unexpected outcomes and decision-relevant unknowns trigger hypothesis formation. Later observations and controlled experiments provide independent validation before a rule can guide predictions or plans within its supported scope. Counterexamples narrow or retire rules as the environment changes. The language model remains frozen, and each rule remains linked to its evidence and the decisions it changes. Across four benchmarks spanning static dynamics, hidden drift, and scientific discovery, EvoBelief improves task performance and reuses learned rules across tasks. On ALFWorld without actor-side transition memory, it improves success over the matched Frozen World Model by 23.9% and 31.3% with Claude Haiku 4.5 and GPT-5.4, respectively. On MiniGrid, it revises stale rules and recovers after unannounced dynamics changes. In DiscoveryWorld's Reactor Lab, it discovers and validates quantitative laws, completing 83.3% of Normal-tier and 58.3% of Challenge-tier instances, versus 0% for each evaluated

EvoBelief improves performance and reuses rules, but implications for human flourishing are uncertain.

SOURCE     arXiv cs.AI (tier 1)
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DOCUMENT   ad4f0ffb-0d25-4303-aab1-8c7bd2fb0fd9
           https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.12789
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EVIDENCE   2 extracted excerpts
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MODEL RUN  1 run, methodology 1.0.1
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SCORE      +20  (Favourable)
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CONFIDENCE 80%