Asymmetric Decline Rather Than Backfire: A Repost-Network Analysis of Japanese Vaccine-Shedding Misinformation on X

arXiv:2610.40677v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This study investigates the diffusion of vaccine-shedding discourse on X in 2024, focusing on polarization in repost networks and reactions to corrective information. Here, "shedding" refers to the scientifically unsupported claim that harmful substances are released from individuals vaccinated against COVID-19 and cause adverse health effects in nearby unvaccinated people. Using 109,170 posts containing the Japanese term for "shedding" and 478,089 reposts collected from January 1 to December 31, 2024, we constructed a post-level repost network, identified discourse clusters, and examined changes in repost participation before and after major events. The results show that shedding discourse formed a two-pole structure consisting of pro-vaccine and anti-vaccine clusters. After news coverage denying shedding, we found no evidence of diffusion-level backfire in anti-vaccine repost activity. Instead, although the overall topic declined, repost participation in the anti-vaccine cluster decreased more sharply than that in the pro-vaccine cluster. User transition analysis further suggests that this change was not driven by the conversion of strongly anti-vaccine users, but by the entry of previously non-expressive users into pro-vaccine diffusion and the withdrawal of anti-vaccine supporters from repost activity. These findings suggest that corrective information may reshape the composition of misinformation diffusion participants without necessarily converting core opponents.

Study finds vaccine misinformation persists on X despite corrective info.

SOURCE     arXiv cs.CY (Computers and Society) (tier 1)
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DOCUMENT   756fe5f5-ea74-483a-9c43-d04b70d63d87
           https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40677
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EVIDENCE   3 extracted excerpts
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MODEL RUN  1 run, methodology 1.0.1
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SCORE      +20  (Favourable)
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CONFIDENCE 80%